Federal Reserve officials could begin reducing the pace of its monthly asset purchases as soon as mid-November, according to minutes from the September meeting. The summary, released Wednesday, indicated that the central bank probably would start by cutting $10 billion a month in Treasury bonds and $5 billion a month in mortgage-backed securities. Officials at the meeting showed concern that current inflation pressures might last longer than they had anticipated.

 

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances increased from 3.14% to 3.18%. Applications to refinance a home loan fell 1% this week, 16% lower than the same week one year ago.

 

Mortgage applications to purchase a home increased 2% for the week but were 10% lower compared with the same week one year ago. The rise was driven by a gain in conventional purchase applications, which kept the average loan size elevated, according to MBA economist Joel Kan. That shows that the bulk of the activity in the housing market continues to be on the higher end.

 

Lots of volatility is expected for both bonds and stocks as both prices react to where inflation and the overall economy will land. Locking rates on loans closing soon while floating long term files is recommended.

 

根据 9 月会议纪要,美联储官员最早可能在 11 月中旬开始降低每月资产购买的步伐。周三发布的摘要表明,央行可能会首先每月削减 100 亿美元的国债和每月 50 亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券。与会官员表示担心当前的通胀压力可能会比他们预期的持续更长时间。

 

30年期定息按揭平均合约利率由3.14%上升至3.18%。本周住房贷款再融资申请下降了 1%,比一年前的同一周下降了 16%。

 

本周购房抵押贷款申请增加了 2%,但与一年前的同一周相比下降了 10%。 MBA 经济学家 (Joel Kan) 表示,这一增长是由传统购买申请的增加推动的,这使得平均贷款规模保持在较高水平。这表明房地产市场的大部分活动继续处于高端。

 

预计债券和股票都将出现大量波动,因为这两种价格都会对通胀和整体经济的走势做出反应。建议在浮动长期文件的同时锁定即将完成成贷款的利率。

Economic Calendar

Report Period Estimate Impact
Date: Mon. Oct. 18
Housing Market Index Oct 76 Moderate
Date: Tue. Oct. 19
Housing Starts Sep 1.630M Moderate
Building Permits Sep 1.720M Moderate
Date: Thu. Oct. 21
Existing Home Sales Sep 6.0M Moderate
Philadelphia Fed Index Oct 26.0 Moderate
Jobless Claims (Initial) 10/16 283K Moderate
Daily rate based on: SFR/Primary/LTV60/FICO 780/Purchase
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