The consumer price index came in slightly hotter than expected in November, as the CPI inflation rate hit a new 39-year high. The core inflation rate, excluding food and energy, rose to 4.9%, a new 30-year high. The Dow Jones industrial average rose modestly following the CPI report in Friday afternoon stock market action, as investors were relieved that price pressures didn’t run even hotter.


The threat of persistently high inflation pressures is likely to lead the Federal Reserve to accelerate its wind-down of crisis-driven asset purchases at next week’s meeting. However, Fed officials are closely monitoring the spread of the omicron variant, which could pose a threat to the outlook.


A brief drop in mortgage rates caused mortgage refinance demand to rise dramatically last week. As the drop occurred due to the sudden news of the omicron variant, it will likely be short-lived. The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage dropped just 1 basis point for the week, but saw a wide swing throughout the duration of the week. Refinance demand surged 9% last week from the previous week. Homebuyer demand for mortgages fell 5% after four straight weeks of gains.


So now the market looks to next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. It is expected for tapering to be sped up. Floating for files are recommended until Fed’s meeting.


由于 CPI 通胀率创下 39 年新高,11 月消费者价格指数略高于预期。不包括食品和能源的核心通胀率升至 4.9%,创 30 年新高。道琼斯工业平均指数在周五下午股市走势的 CPI 报告之后小幅上涨,因为投资者对价格压力并没有变得更加激烈感到松了一口气。


持续高通胀压力的威胁可能会导致美联储在下周的会议上加速结束危机驱动的资产购买。然而,美联储官员正在密切关注 omicron 变体的传播,这可能对前景构成威胁。


由于 omicron 变体的第一个消息,抵押贷款利率的短暂下降导致上周抵押贷款再融资需求急剧上升。但这很可能是短暂的。 30 年期固定利率的平均利率本周仅下降了 1 个基点,但从本周初到周末出现了大幅波动。上周重貸融资需求较前一周飙升 9%。在连续四个星期上涨后,购房者对抵押贷款的需求下降了 5%。



Economic Calendar

Report Period Estimate Impact
Date: Tue. Dec. 14
Producer Price Index (PPI) Nov 0.6% Moderate
Core Producer Price Index (PPI) Nov 0.4% Moderate
Date: Wed. Dec.15
Housing Market Index Dec 84 Moderate
FOMC Meeting Dec Unch High
Retail Sales Nov 1.0% High
Retail Sales ex-auto Nov 0.9% High
Date: Thu. Dec.16
Housing Starts Nov 1.653M Moderate
Philadelphia Fed Index Dec 24 High
Building Permits Nov 1.572M Moderate
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